The World Trade Organization (WTO) announced on Wednesday that artificial intelligence (AI) could increase the value of trade in goods and services by around 40% by 2040, driven by higher productivity and lower costs.
WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, presenting the annual report, stated, “This report comes amid the worst disruptions the global trading system has seen in 80 years.” She added, “Despite the risks facing trade, growth, and development prospects, there are also opportunities, including the potential offered by artificial intelligence.”
The report indicated that global GDP could rise by 12% to 13% under different scenarios if policies are adopted to support the expanded use of AI.
However, the WTO cautioned that inclusive growth requires policies aimed at “reducing the digital divide, investing in workforce skills, and maintaining an open and predictable trading environment.”
Okonjo-Iweala noted, “AI may transform labor markets by changing or replacing certain jobs, and addressing these changes requires investments in national policies for education, skills development, retraining, and social protection.”
She warned that the current negative political reactions to trade partly result from underinvestment in these areas over the past three to four decades of globalization, emphasizing, “We cannot repeat this mistake with artificial intelligence.”
The organization also called for reducing disparities in digital infrastructure between high-income countries and low- and middle-income nations to ensure all countries can benefit from these economic shifts.
The report highlighted a growing number of trade restrictions on AI-related goods, reaching approximately 500 last year, up from about 130 in 2012, with most of these restrictions imposed by high-income and upper-middle-income countries.
