Global oil markets are closely watching developments in the Strait of Hormuz following conflicting reports about the status of maritime traffic through the strategic waterway, raising concerns about potential price spikes when trading resumes on Monday.
Iran’s Tasnim News Agency, citing a source close to the Iranian negotiating team, reported on Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed as long as the ceasefire in Lebanon is not fully respected. The source added that reopening the passage is also linked to the issuance of exemptions allowing Iranian oil exports to resume.
The memorandum of understanding signed last week between Washington and Tehran, aimed at ending the conflict, calls for reopening the strait and halting hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon. However, with fighting continuing there, Iran announced on Saturday that it was once again closing the waterway.
U.S. officials have disputed those claims, insisting that shipping traffic remains uninterrupted. According to American authorities, 55 commercial vessels passed through the strait on Saturday. The U.S. Central Command also stated that nearly 17 million barrels of oil transited the passage that day despite Iranian media reports suggesting otherwise.
Bloomberg reported that three very large crude carriers, with a combined capacity of six million barrels, transmitted signals while sailing through the strait on Saturday along routes near the Omani coast.
Concerns Over Rising Oil Prices
Although crude prices fell to around $80 per barrel following the announcement of the U.S.-Iran agreement, traders are now assessing whether renewed uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz will trigger another rally when markets reopen.
U.S. President Donald Trump previously said that approving the memorandum with Tehran helped prevent a global recession that could have resulted from soaring oil prices caused by a prolonged closure of the strait.
Energy analyst Mamdouh Salameh warned that repeated closures and reopenings of Hormuz create lasting instability in energy markets. He estimated that a so-called “Hormuz transit premium” could add between $15 and $20 to the price of Brent crude.
According to Salameh, this premium could become a permanent component of oil prices, potentially pushing crude into a range between $85 and $100 per barrel, compared with pre-war levels of $60 to $65.
He also noted that the need for massive investments in global oil production over the coming decades could contribute to keeping prices elevated.
Shipping Industry Faces Uncertainty
Iranian authorities announced on Friday that vessels would be temporarily exempt from transit fees while the 60-day negotiation period outlined in the memorandum remains in effect. However, officials suggested that charges could be imposed in the future.
These mixed signals have raised concerns among shipping companies and insurers about the regulatory framework Tehran may adopt once negotiations conclude, including the possibility of mandatory insurance fees for ships crossing the strait.
Economist Ziad Al-Hashimi said that persistent disruptions in Hormuz are likely to affect global energy supply chains and encourage shipping and insurance firms to maintain higher risk premiums on cargoes.
He added that prolonged uncertainty could prompt Asian buyers to seek alternative oil suppliers in regions less exposed to geopolitical tensions and maritime risks.
