Orban’s Fall and Magyar’s Rise: How Hungary Became a Political Model Compared to the United States
Writer M. Gessen offers a political reading of the historic transformation in Hungary following the end of right-wing nationalist leader Viktor Orban’s rule, who dominated the country’s political life for 16 years. The author argues that this transition may carry lessons extending beyond Europe, offering insights to the United States in confronting rising populism and authoritarian tendencies, particularly in the context of Donald Trump.
The article opens with a large celebratory scene in Budapest, where tens of thousands gathered outside the parliament building to mark the inauguration of Peter Magyar as prime minister, an event seen as a symbolic declaration of the end of the “Orban era.”
The author recalls the symbolic significance of the same square, which has historically witnessed major political shifts in Hungary, from protests against Soviet rule to demonstrations against previous governments. It has now once again become the stage for a profound political transformation, despite the fact that Orban’s government had redesigned it architecturally in a way that was partly intended to discourage large public gatherings.
The article describes the atmosphere of celebration as a mix of astonishment and national emotion, with broad participation from young people who had known only Orban’s rule, intellectuals disillusioned after years of political stagnation, and rural families who arrived following Magyar’s extensive campaign tours across hundreds of cities, towns, and villages.
The Equation for Toppling an Entrenched System
The author notes that Magyar’s rise initially appeared unlikely, given Orban’s nature of rule. He was not merely a traditional prime minister but the architect of a comprehensive system controlling media, institutions, and the judiciary, while reshaping electoral laws to favor his party, Fidesz, gradually turning the state into a quasi-authoritarian system with a democratic façade.
Orban also enjoyed admiration from segments of the global conservative right, with several prominent American figures visiting Budapest and expressing support for his model.
However, the political surprise came when the Tisza Party, led by Peter Magyar, secured a sweeping victory and a constitutional majority, enabling it to roll back many of Orban’s institutional reforms.
Magyar’s Success Formula
The article focuses on what it calls Magyar’s “success equation,” suggesting it may be replicable in other contexts, including the United States.
A key element was extensive grassroots organization, relying on a wide network of volunteers and local groups known as “Tisza islands,” rather than depending solely on media campaigns or advertising.
Magyar also relied heavily on direct, face-to-face engagement with voters, contrasting with Orban’s fear-based messaging centered on migration, minorities, and the European Union. This approach helped build trust and exposed the limitations of fear-driven politics.
Another factor was his sharp and explicit political language. While the old opposition described Orban’s system simply as “corrupt,” Magyar labeled it a “mafia state,” referring to a structure of organized power serving a narrow network of beneficiaries.
He also adopted an assertive stance against political attacks, preparing in advance by securing a seat in the European Parliament to ensure political immunity, and responding aggressively to smear campaigns.
The article further notes that Magyar’s success was not simply due to his break from Orban’s camp, but because he was not part of the traditional opposition, which had already lost public trust through years of weakness and indecision.
Finally, the article highlights the role of non-partisan social movements, including teachers protesting state control of education, activists exposing abuses in child care institutions, students, human rights organizations, and other civic groups, all of which contributed to the gradual erosion of Orban’s political system.
